Total New First Time Purchasers
12,000Year 1
Total Revenue
$7,551,780Year 1 Annual
Net Profit
$692,355Year 1 Annual
Cumulative 5-Year Net Profit
$7,932,402Years 1–5
Break-even
Month 1 · Jan Y1
First month cumulative profit turns positive
Peak monthly net profit
$175,603
Best single month across 60 months
Active players, month 60
4,245
Player base at the end of year 5
Assumptions are illustrative. GammaSweep can walk you through a custom model.Talk to GammaSweep
Scenario Comparison
Base, Conservative and Aggressive side by side
| Metric | Base | Conservative | Aggressive | Δ Conservative | Δ Aggressive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 revenue | $7,551,780 | $3,889,747 | $14,452,444 | -$3,662,033 (-48.5%) | +$6,900,664 (+91.4%) |
| Year 1 net profit | $692,355 | $61,257 | $1,956,962 | -$631,098 (-91.2%) | +$1,264,607 (+182.7%) |
| Year 5 revenue | $15,110,767 | $6,057,699 | $37,437,969 | -$9,053,069 (-59.9%) | +$22,327,202 (+147.8%) |
| Year 5 net margin | 13.7% | 7.1% | 17.6% | -6.6% (-48.3%) | +3.8% (+27.9%) |
| 5-year cumulative profit | $7,932,402 | $1,546,226 | $23,879,605 | -$6,386,177 (-80.5%) | +$15,947,203 (+201.0%) |
| Break-even month | Month 1 | Month 8 | Month 1 | +Month 7 (+700.0%) | No change |
| LTV : CAC | 6.88× | 2.74× | 17.19× | -4.14× (-60.1%) | +10.31× (+150.0%) |
| Payback period | 1 mo | 1 mo | 1 mo | No change | No change |
| Minimum cash trough | $0 | -$27,853 | $0 | -$27,853 | No change |
| Active players, month 60 | 4,245 | 2,115 | 8,842 | -2,130 (-50.2%) | +4,597 (+108.3%) |
Conservative shifts
CPA
%
Churn
%
Spend
%
Percentage shift applied to the base case. Positive CPA and churn make the scenario harder; positive spend makes it easier.
Aggressive shifts
CPA
%
Churn
%
Spend
%
Percentage shift applied to the base case. Positive CPA and churn make the scenario harder; positive spend makes it easier.
Annual Summary
Five-year profit and loss at a glance
| Year | Revenue | Redemptions | Marketing | Operational | COGS | Total Expenses | Net Profit | Net Profit % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7,551,780 | -$4,908,657 | -$600,000 | -$746,626 | -$604,142 | -$6,859,425 | $692,355 | 9.2% |
| Year 2 | $11,553,447 | -$7,509,741 | -$600,000 | -$1,102,043 | -$924,276 | -$10,136,059 | $1,417,388 | 12.3% |
| Year 3 | $13,494,846 | -$8,771,650 | -$600,000 | -$1,267,062 | -$1,079,588 | -$11,718,299 | $1,776,546 | 13.2% |
| Year 4 | $14,543,900 | -$9,453,535 | -$600,000 | -$1,356,232 | -$1,163,512 | -$12,573,279 | $1,970,621 | 13.5% |
| Year 5 | $15,110,767 | -$9,821,999 | -$600,000 | -$1,404,415 | -$1,208,861 | -$13,035,275 | $2,075,492 | 13.7% |
| 5-Year Total | $62,254,740 | -$40,465,581 | -$3,000,000 | -$5,876,377 | -$4,980,379 | -$54,322,338 | $7,932,402 | 12.7% |
Unit Economics
Player LTV, CAC and payback period
Player LTV
$344
Contribution margin over 4.2 months
CAC
$50
Cost to acquire one first time purchaser
LTV : CAC
6.88×
Healthy — 3× or better
Payback period
1 month
Months for a player to repay their own CAC
How one player's dollar breaks down
- Redemptions 65.0%
- Game provider 4.0%
- Payments 4.0%
- Contribution 27.0%
A player generates $1,274 of lifetime revenue. 27.0% of it survives redemptions, game provider and payment fees, chargebacks and bonuses.
Cash Flow
Opening balance, burn, minimum trough and runway
Opening balance
$0
Cash in the bank before month 1
Minimum cash trough
$0
Opening balance
Peak funding need
$0
Capital required to reach break-even
Runway
Never runs out
Months before cash is exhausted
| Period | Cash In | Cash Out | Net Cash Flow | Closing Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 Jan | $300,000 | -$299,000 | $1,000 | $1,000 |
| Y1 Feb | $405,000 | -$386,150 | $18,850 | $19,850 |
| Y1 Mar | $483,750 | -$451,513 | $32,238 | $52,088 |
| Y1 Apr | $546,750 | -$503,803 | $42,948 | $95,035 |
| Y1 May | $600,300 | -$548,249 | $52,051 | $147,086 |
| Y1 Jun | $645,818 | -$586,029 | $59,789 | $206,875 |
| Y1 Jul | $684,507 | -$617,874 | $66,634 | $273,509 |
| Y1 Aug | $719,328 | -$646,253 | $73,076 | $346,585 |
| Y1 Sep | $750,667 | -$671,794 | $78,873 | $425,458 |
| Y1 Oct | $778,872 | -$694,781 | $84,091 | $509,549 |
| Y1 Nov | $805,667 | -$716,618 | $89,048 | $598,598 |
| Y1 Dec | $831,122 | -$737,364 | $93,757 | $692,355 |
| Y2 Jan | $855,304 | -$757,073 | $98,231 | $790,586 |
| Y2 Feb | $878,277 | -$775,796 | $102,481 | $893,067 |
| Y2 Mar | $900,101 | -$793,583 | $106,519 | $999,586 |
| Y2 Apr | $920,835 | -$810,480 | $110,354 | $1,109,941 |
| Y2 May | $940,531 | -$826,533 | $113,998 | $1,223,939 |
| Y2 Jun | $959,243 | -$841,783 | $117,460 | $1,341,399 |
| Y2 Jul | $977,019 | -$856,270 | $120,748 | $1,462,147 |
| Y2 Aug | $993,906 | -$870,034 | $123,873 | $1,586,020 |
| Y2 Sep | $1,009,949 | -$883,109 | $126,841 | $1,712,860 |
| Y2 Oct | $1,025,190 | -$895,530 | $129,660 | $1,842,521 |
| Y2 Nov | $1,039,669 | -$907,330 | $132,339 | $1,974,859 |
| Y2 Dec | $1,053,424 | -$918,540 | $134,883 | $2,109,743 |
| Y3 Jan | $1,066,491 | -$929,190 | $137,301 | $2,247,043 |
| Y3 Feb | $1,078,904 | -$939,307 | $139,597 | $2,386,641 |
| Y3 Mar | $1,090,697 | -$948,918 | $141,779 | $2,528,420 |
| Y3 Apr | $1,101,901 | -$958,049 | $143,852 | $2,672,271 |
| Y3 May | $1,112,544 | -$966,723 | $145,821 | $2,818,092 |
| Y3 Jun | $1,122,655 | -$974,964 | $147,691 | $2,965,783 |
| Y3 Jul | $1,132,261 | -$982,792 | $149,468 | $3,115,252 |
| Y3 Aug | $1,141,386 | -$990,230 | $151,156 | $3,266,408 |
| Y3 Sep | $1,150,055 | -$997,295 | $152,760 | $3,419,168 |
| Y3 Oct | $1,158,290 | -$1,004,007 | $154,284 | $3,573,452 |
| Y3 Nov | $1,166,114 | -$1,010,383 | $155,731 | $3,729,183 |
| Y3 Dec | $1,173,547 | -$1,016,441 | $157,106 | $3,886,289 |
| Y4 Jan | $1,180,608 | -$1,022,195 | $158,412 | $4,044,702 |
| Y4 Feb | $1,187,316 | -$1,027,662 | $159,653 | $4,204,355 |
| Y4 Mar | $1,193,688 | -$1,032,856 | $160,832 | $4,365,187 |
| Y4 Apr | $1,199,742 | -$1,037,790 | $161,952 | $4,527,139 |
| Y4 May | $1,205,493 | -$1,042,477 | $163,016 | $4,690,156 |
| Y4 Jun | $1,210,957 | -$1,046,930 | $164,027 | $4,854,183 |
| Y4 Jul | $1,216,147 | -$1,051,160 | $164,987 | $5,019,170 |
| Y4 Aug | $1,221,078 | -$1,055,179 | $165,899 | $5,185,069 |
| Y4 Sep | $1,225,762 | -$1,058,996 | $166,766 | $5,351,835 |
| Y4 Oct | $1,230,213 | -$1,062,623 | $167,589 | $5,519,425 |
| Y4 Nov | $1,234,440 | -$1,066,069 | $168,371 | $5,687,796 |
| Y4 Dec | $1,238,456 | -$1,069,342 | $169,114 | $5,856,911 |
| Y5 Jan | $1,242,272 | -$1,072,452 | $169,820 | $6,026,731 |
| Y5 Feb | $1,245,897 | -$1,075,406 | $170,491 | $6,197,222 |
| Y5 Mar | $1,249,340 | -$1,078,212 | $171,128 | $6,368,350 |
| Y5 Apr | $1,252,611 | -$1,080,878 | $171,733 | $6,540,083 |
| Y5 May | $1,255,719 | -$1,083,411 | $172,308 | $6,712,391 |
| Y5 Jun | $1,258,671 | -$1,085,817 | $172,854 | $6,885,245 |
| Y5 Jul | $1,261,476 | -$1,088,103 | $173,373 | $7,058,618 |
| Y5 Aug | $1,264,141 | -$1,090,275 | $173,866 | $7,232,484 |
| Y5 Sep | $1,266,672 | -$1,092,337 | $174,334 | $7,406,818 |
| Y5 Oct | $1,269,076 | -$1,094,297 | $174,779 | $7,581,597 |
| Y5 Nov | $1,271,361 | -$1,096,159 | $175,202 | $7,756,799 |
| Y5 Dec | $1,273,531 | -$1,097,928 | $175,603 | $7,932,402 |
Milestone Timeline
When the model crosses each commercial threshold
M1M12M24M36M48M60
First profitable month
Monthly net profit turns positive
Month 1 · Jan Y1
Cumulative break-even
Cumulative net profit crosses zero
Month 1 · Jan Y1
$1M cumulative profit
Cumulative net profit passes $1,000,000
Month 16 · Apr Y2
First $1M revenue month
Monthly revenue passes $1,000,000
Month 21 · Sep Y2
$10M cumulative profit
Cumulative net profit passes $10,000,000
Not reached in 5 years
10,000 active players
Active player base passes 10,000
Not reached in 5 years
2 milestones are out of reach on these assumptions. Raising spend, cutting churn or lifting player spend brings them into the window.
Cohort Waterfall
Lifetime revenue contributed by each acquisition cohort
| Cohort | Players | CPA | Acq. Cost | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 | M12 | Lifetime Rev | Contribution | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y1 Jan | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,273,531 | $343,853 | 588% |
| Y1 Feb | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,271,361 | $343,267 | 587% |
| Y1 Mar | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,269,076 | $342,651 | 585% |
| Y1 Apr | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,266,672 | $342,001 | 584% |
| Y1 May | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,264,141 | $341,318 | 583% |
| Y1 Jun | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,261,476 | $340,599 | 581% |
| Y1 Jul | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,258,671 | $339,841 | 580% |
| Y1 Aug | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,255,719 | $339,044 | 578% |
| Y1 Sep | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,252,611 | $338,205 | 576% |
| Y1 Oct | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,249,340 | $337,322 | 575% |
| Y1 Nov | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,245,897 | $336,392 | 573% |
| Y1 Dec | 1,000 | $50.00 | -$50,000 | $300.0K | $105.0K | $78.7K | $63.0K | $53.5K | $45.5K | $38.7K | $34.8K | $31.3K | $28.2K | $26.8K | $25.5K | $1,242,272 | $335,413 | 571% |
M1–M12 is the revenue each cohort produces at that age. Contribution is lifetime revenue after redemptions, game provider and payment fees, chargebacks and bonuses; ROI compares it with what the cohort cost to acquire.
Quarterly Breakdown
Quarter-by-quarter performance for each forecast year
| Period | Total | Revenue | Redemp | Gross | Marketing | Operational | COGS | Total Expenses | Net Profit | Net Profit % | Cumulative Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 1,613 | $1,188,750 | -$772,688 | $416,063 | -$150,000 | -$118,875 | -$95,100 | -$1,136,663 | $52,088 | 4.4% | $52,088 |
| Q2 | 2,153 | $1,792,868 | -$1,165,364 | $627,504 | -$150,000 | -$179,287 | -$143,429 | -$1,638,080 | $154,787 | 8.6% | $206,875 |
| Q3 | 2,502 | $2,154,503 | -$1,400,427 | $754,076 | -$150,000 | -$213,133 | -$172,360 | -$1,935,920 | $218,583 | 10.1% | $425,458 |
| Q4 | 2,770 | $2,415,660 | -$1,570,179 | $845,481 | -$150,000 | -$235,331 | -$193,253 | -$2,148,763 | $266,897 | 11.0% | $692,355 |
| TOTAL | 2,770 | $7,551,780 | -$4,908,657 | $2,643,123 | -$600,000 | -$746,626 | -$604,142 | -$6,859,425 | $692,355 | 9.2% | $692,355 |
Detailed Forecast
Month-by-month detail across all sixty forecast months
| Period | CPA | New | Total | Revenue | Redemp | Gross | Marketing | Operational | COGS | Total Expenses | Net Profit | Net Profit % | Cumulative Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | $50.00 | 1,000 | 1,000 | $300,000 | -$195,000 | $105,000 | -$50,000 | -$30,000 | -$24,000 | -$299,000 | $1,000 | 0.3% | $1,000 |
| Feb | $50.00 | 1,000 | 1,350 | $405,000 | -$263,250 | $141,750 | -$50,000 | -$40,500 | -$32,400 | -$386,150 | $18,850 | 4.7% | $19,850 |
| Mar | $50.00 | 1,000 | 1,613 | $483,750 | -$314,438 | $169,313 | -$50,000 | -$48,375 | -$38,700 | -$451,513 | $32,238 | 6.7% | $52,088 |
| Apr | $50.00 | 1,000 | 1,823 | $546,750 | -$355,388 | $191,363 | -$50,000 | -$54,675 | -$43,740 | -$503,803 | $42,948 | 7.9% | $95,035 |
| May | $50.00 | 1,000 | 2,001 | $600,300 | -$390,195 | $210,105 | -$50,000 | -$60,030 | -$48,024 | -$548,249 | $52,051 | 8.7% | $147,086 |
| Jun | $50.00 | 1,000 | 2,153 | $645,818 | -$419,781 | $226,036 | -$50,000 | -$64,582 | -$51,665 | -$586,029 | $59,789 | 9.3% | $206,875 |
| Jul | $50.00 | 1,000 | 2,282 | $684,507 | -$444,930 | $239,578 | -$50,000 | -$68,183 | -$54,761 | -$617,874 | $66,634 | 9.7% | $273,509 |
| Aug | $50.00 | 1,000 | 2,398 | $719,328 | -$467,563 | $251,765 | -$50,000 | -$71,143 | -$57,546 | -$646,253 | $73,076 | 10.2% | $346,585 |
| Sep | $50.00 | 1,000 | 2,502 | $750,667 | -$487,934 | $262,733 | -$50,000 | -$73,807 | -$60,053 | -$671,794 | $78,873 | 10.5% | $425,458 |
| Oct | $50.00 | 1,000 | 2,596 | $778,872 | -$506,267 | $272,605 | -$50,000 | -$76,204 | -$62,310 | -$694,781 | $84,091 | 10.8% | $509,549 |
| Nov | $50.00 | 1,000 | 2,686 | $805,667 | -$523,683 | $281,983 | -$50,000 | -$78,482 | -$64,453 | -$716,618 | $89,048 | 11.1% | $598,598 |
| Dec | $50.00 | 1,000 | 2,770 | $831,122 | -$540,229 | $290,893 | -$50,000 | -$80,645 | -$66,490 | -$737,364 | $93,757 | 11.3% | $692,355 |
| TOTAL | $50.00 | 12,000 | 2,770 | $7,551,780 | -$4,908,657 | $2,643,123 | -$600,000 | -$746,626 | -$604,142 | -$6,859,425 | $692,355 | 9.2% | $692,355 |